RIght. Unless you’ve determined who is actually behind it (and if so, OSMF should be seeking appropriate legal redress if feasible), all you can say is “these attacks look different” or “these attacks are coming from separate IP addresses” and so forth. If you don’t know who’s behind it, then it’s irresponsible to say “these are not related”.
There are any number of actors that desire for the map to look a certain way. For some groups, having borders (in particular) be in a certain place, or not in a certain place, is not just a preference - it’s existential. Perception matters, and convincing the world of your version of reality, as represented on maps, is tied to public support and things like international aid and arms for war. In other words, for certain groups, what’s on the map is literally a matter of life or death.
If having the map look a certain way is existential, then having no map at all is better than having the “wrong” map. And so, there is plenty of motivation for groups that are on the wrong end of what’s on OSM to conclude that OSM’s very existence is an existential threat.
At any given time, we could be facing an attack ranging from a single disgruntled individual clicking around in iD all the way up to a nation’s intelligence service or armed forces depending on perceptions of national interest.
I do not think that a bunch of hobbyists are likely to prevail against a group that decides that OSM’s existence is an existential problem. It is too easy to harm OSM, and someone whose interests are existential are unlikely to get bored. And that is why I’ve repeatedly called for OSMF to seek the level of assistance and expertise that’s commensurate with the scale of the potential threat it faces.